10.29.2006

CHINA's Economy

* China's economy grew 10.2 percent in the first quarter of 2006, beating expectations and raising worries of overheating.
* In the lead-up to PRC President Hu Jintao's visit to the United States, the renminbi appreciated more rapidly than it had after China's mid-2005 revaluation. Analysts expect appreciation to resume at a more gradual pace through the rest of the year.
* China's global trade surplus was still high in the first quarter of 2006 after ballooning in 2005. Exports and investment are largely responsible.
* The government's new focus on balanced growth and its attempt to shift from an investment- and export-driven economy to a consumption-driven one will mean more policies to promote consumption.
* Sectors such as autos, steel, and aluminum face overcapacity, and the government will continue reining in high fixed-asset investment, which is leading to rising inventories and falling prices in certain sectors.

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